Greeget.com. Golden State Warriors Prediction in the 2019 NBA Finals. The first 2019 NBA final party between the Toronto Raptors and the Golden State Warriors has passed.
The Raptors playing fairly stable in the game proved to be a position that almost always put them ahead throughout the game. The last time the Raptors left behind the Warriors came midway through the second quarter. After that, the smallest difference between the two teams is three points and the Raptors close the game with a final score of 118-109.
In the final prediction that we made some time ago. We explained the conditions of the two teams on four factors that gave us victory. Of these four factors, Warriors excel in three factors, including one of them is the biggest factor, the factor of fire. In this case, the shot factor we use is the eFG% statistic.
Before the final, the Warriors were a team that always ranked top for eFG%. In the regular season, eFG% Warriors touched 56.5 percent. An incredible number and they are 1.5 percent ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks who are second. Raptors? Below the Bucks with 54.3 percent.
The above note has proven that eFG% is one of the biggest provisions to determine a team victory. Warriors themselves if you remember are the final standings of the Western Conference. While the Bucks and Raptors are two Eastern Conference finalists.
Throughout the playoffs, the Warriors are still the best owners of eFG% with 55.6 percent. Raptors finished fourth under the Houston Rockets and Bucks with 51.1 percent. We have discussed, what happened about the game between the Bucks and Raptors in several articles, including final prediction articles. The Raptors are indeed great at lowering the opponent’s eFG.
The eFG figure for Steve Kerr’s team dropped dramatically in the game yesterday with 51.3 percent. While the Raptors rose tremendously at 59.1 percent. Raptors’ increase not only came because their tripoin was quite accurate in the game yesterday (13/33, 39 percent). This increase also occurred because of the strong Raptors in the key area. Shots in key areas themselves have the highest percentage of success among other areas, based on research.
Of the total Raptors points, 40 of them came from key areas. This amount is equivalent to 34 percent of all Raptors points. This can happen because the Raptors really take advantage of their superiority in the front field. Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol became the two main protagonists in the Raptors attack in the first game.
Pascal indeed became the star of the Raptors with 32 points he printed. Interestingly, there were only eight points he printed from free shots (2) and tripoin (6). The rest, coming from the area in the Warriors arc and key area. A total of 10 of the 14 shots entered Pascal in the game yesterday occurred at a distance of less than 10 feet with the ring. Shows how easily Pascal entered the area and the Warriors could not provide meaningful resistance.
The habit of the Warriors who always change their switches during a pick n roll situation is also utilized perfectly by Raptors. This condition will place an extraordinary amount of mismatch. What’s worse, if a mismatch occurs involving Stephen Curry or Jordan Bell. Steph will be an easy target for big players like Marc and Pascal while Jordan will find it difficult to look after Kawhi or Kyle.
If this situation occurs, then the next step of the Warriors is to provide assistance to the two players. The assistance made one other Raptors player release. Of the five main Raptors players, none of them had tripoin accuracy below 30 percent, and all were able to break into key areas well.
On the other hand, I think the defense of the Raptors is also worthy of appreciation. The key to the Raptors’ defense for me was the extraordinary rotation of defense, especially the special credit for Marc Gasol. Even though he only mentioned 2 steals and 1 block plus he was fouled out, his presence on the field for me was a blessing for Raptors. Moreover, the Warriors do not have players who are worthy to duel with Marc when attacking.
If you watch the game in full, you will realize how often Marc prevents Warriors from doing one-on-one isolation games. He will quickly rise to help his colleagues, especially players who have a tendency to be exposed to mismatches such as Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet.
That made the Warriors really have a hard time getting shooting space for their main scorers, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. On the other hand, with the assistance given by Marc, there should be one Warriors player who is free. However, if the players who are free are Jordan Bell, Andre Iguodala and Dryamond Green, it seems Raptors has no problem.
The latter two names have a problem with consistency of shots, especially in the tripoin area, so releasing both will be gambling that is not too detrimental for the Raptors.
It was at this point that I felt the Warriors really missed the figure of Kevin Durant. It was at this point that it made a big difference in their last two final trips. Kevin is an outstanding player on both sides of the game. When defending, the long range will be quite troublesome for the opponent, one thing other players in the Warriors don’t have in the first game. Kevin is also quite agile for players of its size.
On the attacking side, I don’t think there’s any doubt about Kevin’s presence. One of the beneficial things the Warriors have is that they have no limits on Kevin’s shot. Statistically, this player has an accuracy in the range of 47 percent in the medium range tripoin. Steph and Klay do have almost similar records, but with Kevin’s loss, the focus of the Raptors players is easier.
Kevin himself is still certain to be absent in the second game, there are some news reports that he might return in the third or fourth game. If the Warriors want to steal a victory in Jurassic Park, I think they should immediately make changes to the composition of the players.
One combination that I think would be enough to help them is to replace Jordan Bell and Andre Iguodala with Kevon Looney and Alfonzo McKinnie. Throughout the first game, Kevon scored a total of nine points. Of these, six of them were created when he was guarded by Marc, the highest record of the big player (bigman) Warriors over Marc in the first game.
Unfortunately, 10 out of Marc’s 20 total points also occurred when Kevon looked after him. However, if further detailed, all of Marc’s points on Kevon occur under strict guard conditions. A condition that is far better than Jordan, at least Kevon gave a meaningful resistance to Marc.
Similar to Kevon over Jordan, Allfonzo is also quite relevant. With almost all of the Raptors’ eyes fixed on Steph and Klay, this team needs another sniper with a body that is not too small. Alfonzo is the best choice proven by a record of six points for eight minutes from 2/3 tripoin.
The second game will be held on Monday morning, June 3, 2019, Indonesia time. If the Raptors win, this will be the first time in the last five seasons the Warriors have fallen behind (0-2) in the playoffs. However, if the Warriors manage to win, their steps to realize the three peats will be wide open again.